During the past few weeks many friends as well as strangers – that is, ordinary Malaysians who follow the internet media and read my regular articles on political and socio-economic developments in the country – have asked what I think is the most likely outcome for the coming election.
I have responded by analysing the electoral situation firstly in Perak.
For my home state, I have noted that I expect voters in Perak to boot out the state government of Zambry Abdul Kadir who became Mentri Besar illegitimately, initially only because of the treachery and crossover of 3 state political frogs elected under the opposition banner. Subsequently the BN stayed in power because of the massive gerrymandering by the Electoral Commission which enabled the BN to capture the state government despite having only 44% of the popular votes cast in Perak.
Since then, in the 8 years that Zambry and his cronies have been in power, the job and socio-economic situation in Perak has gone from bad to worse due to rampant mismanagement, abuse of power and cronyism.
There are 59 state seats in Perak. In the last general election Pakatan Harapan won 28 seats and in the GE before the last one, Pakatan Harapan won 31 seats, but 3 frogs defected. As a result, BN won control of Perak.
Based on the election result of the last 2 general elections, I am confident Pakatan Harapan can win 28 seats. Since Dr Mahathir’s party PPBM is given 13 seats to stand in the coming GE, I strongly believe they can win at least 2 seats to control Perak.
I would also like to suggest that Dr Mahathir stand in one of the 13 seats allotted to PPBM to ensure winning Perak.
Election Outcome at the Federal Level
What about the election outcome at the federal level, I have been asked?
Here, my prediction is that despite the pessimism and doubts expressed by various analysts, I expect Pakatan to score an upset victory. There are two main reasons why I am making this claim.
The first is simple common sense. During the 13 GE in 2013, Prime Minister Najib’s BN won just 49 per cent of the votes making him the first minority PM.
Today, in 2018, if a survey was conducted for those who voted BN whether the socio-economic situation and their lives has gotten better or worse in the last 5 years, I am 99% certain that a large majority among them will say that it has got worse, much worse!
This is true not only of the lower class but also for the middle class which forms the decisive bloc in the coming election. I foresee a very large proportion of the middle class voters – whether Malay, Chinese, Indian or natives from East Malaysia – deciding that enough is enough in a country which has gone kleptomaniac-crazy led by the BN leaders. The voters will see that it is not only the top leaders who are milking the system of billions of ringgit. It is also the lower level BN leaders and their cronies at the state, district and local level who are following the example of the top leaders and helping themselves and their cronies to contracts, licences, projects, concessions, privatization deals, and engaging in other abuses of power.
In every urban area, Felda scheme and village, the voter have seen how the BN leaders and parties have helped themselves and taken corruption to the highest level ever in our country’s history. And they know that so long as the BN remains in power, there will never be any effort to curb corruption or to punish those stealing from the public treasury.
And that at the end of the day, it is the ordinary Malaysian – irrespective of race and religion – and their children who will have to pay the heavy price for failing to change the government when the power is still in their hands.
The second major reason is what I see as the Dr. Mahathir X factor. Although I have been critical of Dr. Mahathir in the past, and this is clear from the articles I have written on Dr. Mahathir, I – like so many Malaysians – am convinced that Dr. Mahathir is committed to helping the country get rid of Prime Minister Najib Razak, UMNO and BN and setting the country on a new road map of reform and change.
I know that there are some sceptics who see Dr. Mahathir as a negative factor or who hold resentments against him for his authoritarian past
But I believe that Dr. Mahathir is genuinely wanting to atone for his past mistakes. And for this he is sacrificing his name and place in history by taking on Najib and UMNO; and holding them responsible and accountable for the sorry state that Malaysia now is in; where cheating, spinning, and lying is normal behavior; and graduates have to sell nasi lemak to survive while the government looks the other way and blames all the problems of the country – including 1MDB – on Dr. Mahathir.
We know that Dr. Mahathir could have looked the other way. He could have kept his mouth shut when the 1MDB and other abuses of power took place. He could have behaved like any other ex-Prime Minister and ignored what was happening and lived the last stage of his life covered in glory and honour.
But he refused. Instead he is making the ultimate sacrifice to end BN rule in the country.
On 2 February, Dr. Mahathir came to Ipoh as part of his nation-wide campaign to canvass support for Pakatan Harapan. I met with him and provided a donation to the opposition election front.
I am confident that when election time comes about, hundreds of thousands if not millions of voting Malaysians will head towards the polling booths because of the Dr. Mahathir X factor and their total disillusionment with Prime Minister Najib and BN.
I believe that we will see a historic victory by the opposition.
And to make that victory a decisive and overwhelming one, I urge all Malaysians – especially the younger voters and indecisive ones – not to be discouraged or to be bought over by the BN’s election goodies and spin against Dr. Mahathir.
Let the two thirds majority that Najib and BN are boasting about be the two thirds majority for the opposition.
Let Malaysia finally show the world that – together with Dr. M – we will not be cowed by the big stick of the BN or by the sweets and carrots that BN are waving to ensure they remain in power.
With Dr Mahathir Pakatan Harapan will have the best chance ever to win control of Putrajaya.