Investing

Why business sense is so important?

 

There are many ways to make money from the stock market. Our famous Mr Ooi Teik Bee strictly follows his FA and TA system and teaches his method.

Mr Fred Tam strictly follow charts and he also teaches his system.

I just look at FA and TA but I do not strictly follow them because I look at the company’s business especially its profit growth prospect.

After I have tried various methods over the years, I have formulated my share selection golden rule which is as follows:

I will start to buy a little when I see the company reported a sudden jump in profit. When I see the company again reported increase profit for another quarter, I will buy more aggressively.

During the Asian Flu epidemic about 7 years ago, the demand for rubber gloves far exceeded supply. All the glove manufacturers were making phenomenal increasing profit every quarter and all their share prices were shooting through the roof.

Among all the glove manufacturers, I selected Supermax which shot up from 95 sen to Rm 6.20 per share within 15 months. During the epidemic, the Health Authorities took extra precaution to prevent the spread of the deadly virus. The use of gloves to handle almost everything was recommended. Temperature X-ray equipment was installed at every airport for every incoming passenger to pass through.

During that period there were so many analyst reports and recommendations and Top Glove was the most highly recommended. But I chose Supermax because it reported losses before the epidemic crisis and the share was selling at 95 sen per share, below par value. Every financial institution and investors must have glove company shares at that time.

The daily turnover for Supermax was more than 10 million shares. As soon as I saw there was no more an X-ray equipment at the airport when I returned from Hong Kong, I called my remisiers to sell all my holdings of Supermax. I managed to sell all my shares within a few days at above Rm 6 per share.

I also follow my share selection golden rule to buy Latitude Tree, VS Industry and Lii Hen and I became the second largest shareholder in Latitude Tree, VS Industry and Lii Hen at one time.

Each of these counters I mentioned above, went up a few hundred per cent within 1 or 2 years.

I was told that my share selection golden rule is unorthodox and it is not written in any text book.

There is an English say “Exception proves the rule. If there is no exception, there is no rule”.

In the case of my purchase of Jaks, I did not follow my share selection golden rule. I also did not follow FA & TA to start buying JAKS. In fact, I remember that I bought 6.8 million shares on 28 February last year when the company reported losses and the chart was dropping like a bomb.

Many people including my closest friends thought I was crazy to buy so many shares when the company just reported heavy losses.

FA and TA do not tell the future performance of the company.

Remember the accounts and financial statements and the price chart do not tell you the future profit growth prospect which is the most powerful catalyst to move share prices.

As an entrepreneur, I could see Jaks will have a tremendous profit growth from its 1,200 MW coal fired power plant in Vietnam. It looks so unbelievable that Jaks with such a small market capitalisation can eventually own 40% of the power plant with the Chinese parties who are responsible for the finance and construction of the power plant.

Jaks and his JV partners are sure of making profit every year for 25 years because the lawyers of the 3 Chinese National Banks must have gone through the power purchase agreement thoroughly to ensure the borrowers can make profit to return the loan. Since the loan of about Rm 7.7 billion is from the Chinese National Banks, the Vietnamese Government must honour the power purchase agreement.

Based on my business sense, I think the Chinese JV partners who are prepared to put in several billion Ringgit to own 60% of the power plant business, it is only logical they will soon want to buy some Jaks shares from the open market. Can you imagine how the share price will shoot?

Readers of I3investors’ comments on Jaks

With good intention, I have written several articles to encourage people to buy the shares. I was so frustrated when I see so many people ridiculed me in i3investor forum earlier. Now after the recommendations of Public Bank and Affin Hwang, I do not see any senseless comments.

Fortunately, just a days ago, Public Bank analyst published a very comprehensive report after his visit of the power plant construction in Hanoi. His target price is Rm 1.75 per share.

Affin Hwang analyst also published his site visit report with a target price of Rm 2.25 per share.

Mr Ooi Teik Bee did not buy Jaks after his site visit because he follows his FA and TA strictly. He does not want to look at its business. He will only buy when the account is showing profit and the price chart is showing the price selling above the 70 day moving average. At Rm 1.00 he would not buy but he will recommend buy when it is selling above about Rm 2.50 per share.

That is why I say that business sense is so important if you want to buy at cheaper prices before all the expert analysts. That is how to make more profit than FA and TA experts.

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