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Comfort price correction overdone


Koon Yew Yin 20 May 2020 

Yesterday the share prices of all the glove makers including Hartalega, Top Glove, Kossan, Supermax, Comfort, Rubberex and Careplus without exception dropped due to profit taking. It is unusual in the stock market for all these shares in the same industry to dropped simultaneously. However, people always follow the crowd, like a herd of saheep. It is called a herd mentality as demonstrated by the picture below.   

As I said before, due to Covid 19 pandemic, the demand for gloves far exceeds supply. As a result, the glove price continues to go up higher and higher and all glove makers are making more and more profit which is being reflected on their share prices. This situation will continue until Covid 19 in under control. Many scientists predicted that Covid 19 pandemic will not be under control for at least another year until a vaccine is discovered and approved by FDA of USA. 

As I said before, no stock can continue to go up or down for whatever reason. After sometime, it will change the trend direction.  In the case of Comfort, I believe the price correction is overdone. It should rebound soon, likely today. You can see a 1 month and a 5 days price charts below for your reference.  

By the way, last night Mr Ooi Teik Bee sent out his weekly share recommendation circular to all his subscribers. His target price for Comfort is Rm 5.56.     

I think Mr Ooi Teik Bee will not mind if I re-product part of his recommendation for Comfort as below: 

How I derive Profit before tax of 216 million in FY 2021

  1. FY 2021 starts from February 2020 to January 2021.
  2. I take the revenue of Q4 2020 result to be used to calculate PBT.
  3. The price increase on glove is 30% in FY 2021, PBT= 139 million * 30% = 41 million.
  4. The average PBT in Q4 2020 is around 13 million, total PBT = 41 + 13 = 54 million.
  5. I assume the PBT per quarter in FY 2021 is 54 million per quarter.  
  6. I did not take into consideration the production cost reduction in term of lower raw material cost.
  7. I also did not take into consideration of the 12% capacity increase in 2021.
  8. I assume 25% income tax, below is my projected PAT for 2021.   
StockYearPriceRevenuePATEPSPERTarget priceGain %
Comfort20212.055561620.287.385.56171%

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