How will Trump fare in the November election?

Koon Yew Yin 10 June 2020

Currently US has 2.02 million Covid 19 cases and 114,000 deaths. A total of 14 states and the US territory of Puerto Rico have recorded their worst week yet for new coronavirus infections, with Texas hitting a record high in Covid-19 hospitalizations, all while restrictions to curb the pandemic are being relaxed across America. US has the most Covid 19 cases in the world. As a result, the number of jobless claims is mounting to 40 million, about 1 in 5 people is out of work. Congress has passed an additional US$ 1 trillion, making a total of 3.5 US$ trillion for subsidy. The U.S., the world’s largest economy, went into receassion in February of 2020.  It has taken a broad range of steps to combat the economic disruption caused by COVID-19. Congress passed trillions of dollars in fiscal programs, while the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve, added trillions of dollars in monetary stimulus. Until Covid 19 in under control, the US economy will continue to get worse.    

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Trump does not know how to stop the spread of Covid 19.  

On the top of the Covid 19 pandemic, demonstrations erupted in cities across the U.S. in response to the death of George Floyd, an unarmed black man, in the hands of Minneapolis police.

Derek Chauvin, the police officer filmed kneeling on Floyd’s neck for 8.6 minutes to kill him. He was arrested and charged with murder and manslaughter. The anger in response to Floyd’s killing descended into rioting and looting in several cities. Thousands of people irrespective of race and religion demanded justice. Even in London, there are demonstrations and protests against racial discrimination. 

The governors of Minnesota, Georgia, Ohio, Washington and Kentucky have mobilized their state National Guards. President Donald Trump and the Pentagon have said they stand ready to provide federal forces to Minnesota if requested to quell unrest. 

When the protesters demonstrated in front of the White House, Trump ordered the army to fight the protesters. 

Trump last week was on the brink of firing Defence Secretary Mark Esper over their differing views of domestic use of active-duty military, before advisers and allies on Capitol Hill talked him out of it. He was furious that Esper did not support him. 

Many well know people including the former Defence Secretary Jim Mattis denounced Trump for exacerbating the divisions in American society and said that he has fuelled the current disorder plaguing U.S. cities.  

Trump does not know how to stop the protests and rioting in most cities. 

It looks like Trump will lose his re-election.  

The last incumbent lost his re-election was George W. Bush senior. He won the presidency in 2000, and again in 2004. Bush Sr. was elected in the fall of 1988 and served between 1989 and 1993. During his presidency, he oversaw the U.S.-led first Gulf War that ended Iraqi occupation of Kuwait. While the military campaign was a success, President Bush’s popularity suffered as the economy faltered later in his term. In 1992 he lost his re-election bid to Bill Clinton. 

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